1 year ago

f+h Intralogistics 1/2016

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f+h Intralogistics 1/2016

Deutsche Post DHL

Deutsche Post DHL published a scenario study on “Logistics 2050” 2050 FUTURE OF LOGISTICS “How does one shed light into the black box we call the future? Today’s complex economic and political landscape renders accurate forecasts virtually impossible. In our volatile and connected world, traditional, linear forms of analyzes have repeatedly proven wrong. They, alone, simply aren’t enough to help us anticipate and prepare for change”, so Frank Appel, CEO Deutsche Post DHL. W ith this in mind, Deutsche Post DHL has prepared another issue of their pioneering “Delivering Tomorrow” series: namely, a scenario study on “Logistics 2050.” This latest publication presents five far-ranging, at times even radical visions of life in the year 2050 and their implications for the logistics industry. The scenarios were derived by observing the key influencing forces around us, such as trade and consumption patterns, technological developments or climate change and considering how they drive behaviors and shape values. By covering a comprehensive spectrum in the “space of future possibilities,” such alternative visions help us to sense a shifting environment much better than any extrapolation of isolated trends could do. Read here a summary of the five scenarios. f+h Distribution 1/2016

Scenario 1: Untamed economy – impending collapse The world in the year 2050 The world is characterized by unchecked materialism and consumption. The paradigm of quantitative growth predominates and the concept of sustainable development has been rejected. Trade barriers have been eliminated and global trade flourishes. Global economic power has shifted to Asia and the former “emerging” countries have surpassed the West. A global transportation supergrid ensures the rapid exchange of goods between the various centers of consumption. This untamed economy, propelled by unsustainable lifestyles and the uncontrolled exploitation of natural resources, carries the seeds of its own demise: as massive climate change inches closer, natural disasters occur more often and frequently disrupt supply chains. Implications for the logistics industry From the perspective of the logistics industry, these developments lead to a massive increase in demand for logistics and transport services. Companies are even outsourcing their production processes to logistics companies. While climate change has opened up shorter and more efficient trade routes through the Arctic ice, the increase of extreme weather events causes repeated disruptions to the supply chain and raises capital costs for logistics companies. Disaster response and contingency planning becomes more important as the number of natural disasters around the world continues to rise. The growing scarcity of energy resources, higher energy prices and costlier raw materials mean smaller profit margins. As a result, not only offshoring but also nearshoring are common business strategies. Scenario 2: Megaefficiency in megacities Implications for the logistics industry The logistics industry is entrusted to run city logistics, utilities, as well as system services for airports, hospitals, shopping malls and construction sites, along with part of the public transport infrastructure. It also manages the complex logistics planning and operations for advanced manufacturing tasks. In contrast to the situation in cities, the logistics services available in remote rural areas are poor. In larger villages, central collection stations are the main delivery option for products ordered online. In response to “dematerialization” of consumption, logistics companies offer an array of renting and sharing services, as well as secure data transfer. Thus, advanced logistics services not only encompass the fast and reliable delivery of goods, but also the safe transfer of information and knowledge. Scenario 3: Customized lifestyles The world in the year 2050 In this world, individualization and personalized consumption are pervasive. Consumers are empowered to create, design and develop their own products. This leads to a rise in regional trade streams, with only raw materials and data still flowing globally. Custom-ization and regional production are complemented by decentralized energy systems and infrastructure. New production technologies such as 3D printers accelerate the customization trend and allow developing countries to leapfrog classical industrial production patterns. However, the growth in production of personalized products has increased the overall consumption of energy and raw materials, which puts the earth’s climate on course for a 3.5°C temperature increase by the end of the century. Implications for the logistics industry The growing importance of 3D printing has a significant impact on the logistics industry. Logistics providers transport raw materials for The world in the year 2050 In this world, megacities are both the main drivers and beneficiaries of a paradigm shift towards green growth. To overcome the challenges of expanding urban structures, such as congestion and emissions, they have become collaboration champions, fostering open trade and global governance models in partnership with supranational institutions. Rural regions have been left behind and the nation-state no longer plays the dominant role it once did. Robotics has revolutionized the world of production and services. Consumers have switched from product ownership to rent-and-use consumption. Highly efficient traffic concepts, including underground cargo transport and new solutions for public transport, have relieved congestion. Zero-emission automated plants have helped to cut carbon emissions. A global “supergrid” transport network with mega transporters, including trucks, ships and aircraft, as well as space transporters, has opened important trade connections between the megacities of the world. About Deutsche Post DHL The Deutsche Post and DHL corporate brands represent a one-of-a-kind portfolio of logistics (DHL) and communications (Deutsche Post) services. The Group provides its customers with easy to use standardized products as well as innovative and tailored solutions ranging from dialog marketing and e-commerce related logistics to industrial supply chains. Around 480,000 employees in more than 220 countries and territories form a global network focused on service, quality and sustainability. With programs in the areas of environmental protection, disaster management and education, the Group is committed to social responsibility. f+h Distribution 1/2016


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